Analysis | Gambling in Pandemic Proportions: COVID-19 in Tajikistan and Turkmenistan
Across the globe, the COVID-19 pandemic is challenging assumptions held by many for years about the capacity and capability of their governments. The situation is no different in Central Asia. Some governments in the region, namely Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, have taken preventive and protective measures against the virus. These countries shut down their borders to China early on and have closed their own borders after confirming their first official cases. While the government responses have not been perfect, it should be acknowledged that these countries are behaving responsibly and mitigating the economic and health impacts as best they can, perhaps to the pleasant surprise of the world.
Unfortunately, not all countries in Central Asia have taken the threat of the virus seriously. The Turkmen and Tajik governments have failed to appropriately react to the global pandemic. Contrary to a recent NPR report, the word coronavirus is not banned in Turkmenistan; nonetheless, the government has been slow to prepare its citizens for a potential outbreak. In typical Turkmenistan fashion, the country is reluctant to share any information about coronavirus with its citizens or the outside world. The government of Tajikistan, in a similar display of poor judgment, forced its citizens to attend mass gatherings to celebrate the Persian New Year of Nowruz. Tajikistan has also decided to allow its soccer league to continue to play through the season, albeit the government is not allowing fans to attend matches. Both governments have largely attempted to maintain a façade of normalcy while the rest of the region scrambles to respond to the challenges COVID-19 presents.
Across Central Asia, Uzbekistan is leading the response to COVID-19 and frequently consults with Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. This communication and response in the region would have been difficult to fathom just ten years ago. While the decision to deny the severity of the crisis may be a knee-jerk authoritarian reaction or a vestige of Soviet censorship, the bottom line is that not all countries in Central Asia have reacted to this virus in the same way. In Turkmenistan and Tajikistan, reactions are unfortunately all too similar to those ten years ago; the governments in Ashgabat and Dushanbe are endangering the lives of their citizens, their economic progress, and the stability of their countries.
Tajikistan and Turkmenistan’s apparent lack of transparency and their failure to put in place substantive protective measures entails long term consequences for their economic and political situations. Tajikistan has currently quarantined approximately 7,000 of its citizens in total and tested roughly 700 for COVID-19. Other than this, virtually no preventative measures have been taken and neither country has reported a single case of COVID-19. While in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, fines and imprisonment are acceptable punishment for leaving one’s home unmasked, the Tajik government cannot even accurately account for the number of ventilators in their possession.
““Both governments have largely attempted to maintain a façade of normalcy while the rest of the region scrambles to respond to the challenges COVID-19 presents.””
In Turkmenistan, there has been some national discussion about illness, however, officials and the state-controlled media have been incredibly hesitant to mention specifics. Athletic events have been shut down, but schools are still in session as of the end of March and the media has only just begun distributing information to the populous. Furthermore, the government is spraying Ashgabat (the capital) with disinfectant while maintaining the narrative that there are no positive COVID-19 cases despite the country’s shared border with Iran and frequent business interactions with China. As the crisis has intensified globally, Turkmenistan has largely continued business as usual within its borders. The cavalier attitude taken by Turkmenistan and Tajikistan has left global observers seriously concerned.
If the trends of denial and carelessness continue, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan are likely to be met with hostility and distrust once the worst of the pandemic passes and life begins to return to normal. In the coming months, as the severity of the pandemic lessons, states will naturally be concerned about the next one. Bearing these concerns in mind, the international community may consider countries that did not properly prepare for, test, or report their cases during this pandemic, such as Turkmenistan and Tajikistan, areas of concern. Tajik and Turkmen citizens studying, working, and living abroad will likely be met with the stigma that COVID-19 continues to plague their home countries, regardless of whether that remains true or not.
The relationship between minority and majority ethnicities in Central Asia has long been painful and — on occasion — explosive, due to a complicated Soviet legacy. COVID-19 may only make this situation worse. The added stigma of the virus will likely further complicate matters for Tajik migrant workers abroad, which represent a crucial source of income for much of the country. Though far fewer Turkmens live abroad, Ashgabat's economic challenges will only be amplified if European and Chinese firms begin expressing concern about conducting business in Turkmenistan for fear that the virus remains unchecked within Turkmenistan’s borders. If this scenario plays out, then both Tajikistan and Turkmenistan would likely retreat further from the global supply chain and become even more isolated as their leaders attempt to avoid blame for the delicate situation in which they find themselves.
The leadership in Dushanbe and Ashgabat seem to believe that generally denying the existence of COVID-19 in their respective countries will safeguard their domestic image, and therefore attract the interest of foreign business ventures. They are mistaken. Their trademark lack of transparency is already a source of concern for their neighbors, and often complicates efforts at regional cooperation. As the world has witnessed, COVID-19 spreads rapidly and, while no country will remain unaffected, the virus will undoubtedly impact the societal stability of some Central Asian countries more than others. Many will likely use the virus to confirm cross-country and ethnic biases, as we have already begun to see happen against the Chinese. The growing distrust of Turkmenistan and Tajikistan spells trouble for both their citizens and their governments and will have repercussions far beyond the current crisis.
““If this scenario plays out, then both Tajikistan and Turkmenistan would likely retreat further from the global supply chain and become even more isolated as their leaders attempt to avoid blame for the delicate situation in which they find themselves.””
Both Turkmenistan and Tajikistan have poorly prepared for the shock to their economies — which are already suffering due to slumping oil prices — as a result of slowing international markets due to the crisis. Approximately 25% of Turkmenistan’s GDP derives from the export of hydrocarbons, indicating that even in the best of times, a continued price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia could be financially ruinous — and these are not the best of times. In late March and early April, President Berdimuhamedow began to explore measures to protect the health of the economy of Turkmenistan; however, apart from banning all payments in foreign currencies within the country, nothing has been done. While the government’s artificially-fixed exchange rate of the Manat to the dollar has remained relatively consistent until now, the unofficial black market official exchange rate has remained relatively consistent until now, the unofficial black-market exchange rate — which is more representative of the real market value — has suffered as a result of the President’s announcement. In a double-blow to citizens’ welfare, Turkmenistan is now experiencing severe food shortages across the country; an incident that has precedence but which now promises to be more severe than previous shortages. In what is perhaps a small symbol of recognition of what is yet to come, President Berdimuhamedow is selling several of his luxury cars. Then again, he may simply have grown tired of them.
While hydrocarbons do not directly constitute a significant portion of Tajikistan’s GDP, travel restrictions and the ensuing economic downturn in Russia as a result of the pandemic and collapse of oil prices will nonetheless be hard felt in Tajikistan. Around 30% of its GDP comes from remittances of migrant workers who earn their wages in Russia. Tajikistan has not officially closed its border and has made no indications of its intention to do so at the time of this writing, but Russia has. This means that hundreds of thousands of Tajik migrants who rely on their ability to work in Russia will be unable to do so for months. Many families in Tajikistan financially depend on remittances, which in turn fuel economic transactions throughout the country. Again, President Rahmon has offered no signals that his government intends to engage with Russia to support Tajik migrant workers or take other measures to protect the economy in the coming months.
Close observers of the region suspect that the leaders in Dushanbe and Ashgabat have been grooming their sons for succession in the near future. The previous summer saw rumors that President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow of Turkmenistan had died after an extended absence from the public eye. His son, Serdar Berdimuhamedow who currently serves as the Minister of Industry, and has spent the past several years being appointed from post to post, perhaps to prepare him for the presidency. In Tajikistan, Rustam Emomali, the son of President Emomali Rahmon, was recently promoted from Mayor of the capital city to a Senator in the Supreme Assembly. President Rahmon has ruled for almost 30 years, and the promotion of his son appears a reliable indicator that he has chosen his son to be his successor.
Irrespective of the fact that both countries’ leaders are in high-risk age groups for contracting COVID-19, it appears that transition periods are on the horizon in both countries and have been for some time. Political transitions in either country could be difficult given that Tajikistan has never had a leader other than Rahmon, and Turkmenistan has only ever undergone one change in leadership. In Tajikistan, President Rahmon has eradicated the last of his legitimate opposition, and in Turkmenistan there is no meaningful challenge to either father or son. However, in times of severe economic crisis, regimes such as those in Turkmenistan and Tajikistan often struggle to adapt and meet even the most basic needs of the people. The impending economic downturn has the potential to test the strength and stability of the governments of both Turkmenistan and Tajikistan.
““A campaign to improve domestic transparency combined with serious policies and careful management to address the crisis would not harm either government’s political security and, crucially, would save the lives of many of their citizens.””
Although Turkmenistan and Tajikistan failed to adequately prepare for the crisis, they are not alone in this failure, as many of the world’s leaders made the same mistake out of either hubris or ignorance. The Presidents of Turkmenistan and Tajikistan chose to protect their carefully crafted images of invulnerability over the care of their own people, perhaps gambling that they can both weather the storm and minimize the damage to their power and economy. The ensuing months will more than likely prove that a losing bet. In contrast, an approach that places transparency and honesty with the international community first during this time could rebuild some of the trust that Ashgabat and Dushanbe have lost in recent years. A campaign to improve domestic transparency combined with serious policies and careful management to address the crisis would not harm either government’s political security and, crucially, would save the lives of many of their citizens.
A global pandemic of this proportion has truly global repercussions. What happens in one country affects all countries — even in times of border lockdowns and social distancing, cross-border interaction occurs. The world has learned this countless times over, even just within the confines of the current pandemic. Tajikistan and Turkmenistan should begin to work with regional and global partners to prevent the worst-case scenarios within their borders and to avoid contributing to the global crisis. Regrettably, the odds of this happening remain as poor as of when Ashgabat and Dushanbe chose to ignore the pandemic. It seems that in times of crisis, too, gambling makes a poor substitute for good governance.
Danny Lehmann
- Staff Contributor
- Twitter: @DannyLehmann10
- LinkedIn: Danny Lehmann
Edited by: Cameron Vaské, Anna Davidson
All views expressed in this article are solely those of the author, and do not represent the views of The International Scholar or any other organization.
Banner photo credit:
“PHIL ID #23311,” CDC.gov, CDC Image Library
https://phil.cdc.gov/Details.aspx?pid=23311
“Close Up Shot of a Roulette,” Naim Benjelloun, Pexels
https://www.pexels.com/photo/close-up-shot-of-a-roulette-3894215/
