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All in Civil War
In a great irony, the COVID-19 pandemic might be a harbinger of peaceful times for Yemen. After more than 5 years of war and a severe humanitarian crisis, multiple ceasefire declarations by the Saudi-led coalition, plummeting oil prices, and a significant redirection of funds towards the domestic healthcare sector might finally convince the warring parties to agree to a durable peace accord.
Libya has become a chessboard for regional and foreign powers as Europe stands by, risking the creation of another geopolitical and refugee crisis in Northern Africa. There is a clear alternative path for Brussels and other European capitals to take.
Large bombings, only days apart, in Bogota and Derry/Londonderry have put paid to any notions of a simple peace process in either country. The Irish and Colombian peace processes face increasing uncertainty as the FARC deal remains delicately balanced against social tension and the Good Friday Agreement hangs under threat from the Brexit process. In both Colombia and Northern Ireland this situation incentivizes outbidding and conspicuous displays of force as armed groups jockey for power in anticipation of a breakdown in social order.
Benjamin Franklin, remarking on the coming end of the American Revolutionary War, opined that “there was never a good War, or a bad Peace.” But not all peace is equal, and not all ceasefires lead to peace. The consequences of decisions made during negotiations will continue to reverberate long after the ink has dried. Policymakers must now reconcile the disparities created during the peace process that have benefited national security at the expense of the most vulnerable communities.
