Sep 8

Sep 8 Analysis | Germany and Russia: Uneasy Allies or Strained Competitors?

Eastern Europe, Geopolitics, Russia, Europe, Politics, Germany

From friendly negotiations on Nord Stream 2 to trading barbs and accusations on who was to blame for the 2015 cyberattacks on Germany's Bundestag, Germany and Russia share a complex relationship that is constantly evolving. Traditionally, Germany has valued its transatlantic ties, calling the United States its closest ally. This alliance originates from common values, a shared history as well as mutual interests in disarmament, economic cooperation, energy security, and cybersecurity.

However, as the United States has opted out of its traditional European role, Germany has been forced to consider other alliances and the redefinition of its role in Europe. Chancellor Angela Merkel notably stated in May of 2017 that “In part, the times in which we could totally rely on others have passed.” As the United States gradually disengages from Europe, Merkel is not entirely wrong.

While it certainly values its transatlantic relationship with Washington, Berlin has made many overtures to Russia in an attempt to capitalize on their pre-existing economic and energy cooperation. Chancellor Merkel and President Putin even share a unique relationship as Merkel grew up in East Germany and Putin spent some of his KGB years stationed in Dresden.

Now, however, the relationship may be straying into more dangerous territory. Russia's increasingly bold activities on German soil, including the murder of a Chechen commander in Berlin, as well as its disinformation campaigns, may force Merkel to question the usefulness of pursuing a positive relationship with Russia. However, Merkel and Germany need Russia's cooperation on several geopolitical fronts in Syria, Ukraine, and Libya. Germany must decide to what extent cooperation is still necessary with Russia, and what, if any, consequences Russia may face for its behavior.

Foreshadows & Flashpoints
Russian-German relations have been central to European politics and security for many centuries. While the two countries have more often than not been allies, their competition led to devastating wars twice in the twentieth century. At the end of the Cold War, Germany’s reunification as the Federal Republic of Germany marked the beginning of a rapprochement between Russia and Germany. While Germany served as Russia’s guide to integrating with the West, Germany became Russia’s most important trading partner.

However, the annexation of Crimea in 2014 conclusively ended the era of friendly cooperation between Moscow and Berlin. Germany saw the annexation of a part of Ukraine as an unprovoked usage of military force, noting that it undermined the post-World War II order. Since then, Germany has worked with other European countries to mediate between Ukraine and Russia. In 2015, Germany and France worked with Russia to sign the Minsk agreement, a set of measures to reach conflict resolution. When the first Minsk agreement was ineffective, Germany and Russia also worked separately towards Minsk II that same year. Three years later, the leaders of Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia met in Paris for the Normandy Summit. There do not appear to be any real concessions from Russia, suggesting a continued lack of progress for conflict resolution. Instead, the conflict in Ukraine is entering a new stage of stabilization and normalization similar to that of Transnistria in Moldova.

The assassination of Zelimkhan Khangoshvili, a Chechen separatist, in Berlin in August of 2018 further exacerbated the degradation of the Russian-German relationship. In response, the German government expelled two Russian diplomats after claiming they had sufficient evidence that the Russian or Chechen government sanctioned the assassination. While many German politicians called the expulsion meaningless, many others pointed to the upcoming Normandy Summit in Paris, suggesting that a lack of measures with teeth came as a result of not wanting to rock the boat with Russia.

More cracks formed in the German-Russian relationship with continued hybrid measures and attacks from Moscow, including the spread of disinformation and cyberattacks. In 2015, the Bundestag was attacked by hackers, now identified as originating from the GRU. In response, Merkel stated that while she strives towards a better relationship with Russia on a daily basis, “but then on the other we see that there is solid evidence showing that Russian forces are also involved in such activities.” In response, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called Merkel’s accusations “baseless.”

Far more than an isolated cyberattack, Germany has also been the target of many Russian disinformation operations. Perhaps the most well-known instance of Russian disinformation in Germany is the 2016 “Lisa” case. The Lisa case was a fabricated story about a Russian-German girl named Lisa who was allegedly raped by immigrants. This disinformation was mean to animate anti-immigrant sentiment in Germany, particularly against Merkel’s open immigration policy. In 2017, Russia also propagated disinformation during Germany’s federal election. Apart from traditional disinformation and the promotion of ‘fake news’ online, Russia has also supported non-mainstream right-wing parties such as Alternativ für Deutschland (AfD), which harbor sympathetic views towards Russia.

A Resilient Relationship
Despite the many potential flashpoints that threaten Germany and Russia’s relationship, the benefits that accompany it are many, and their relationship appears to be on the rise following the steep downturn after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. There is no clearer example of this than the ongoing negotiations and construction of the NordStream 2 pipeline. The NordStream 2 pipeline is a direct German-Russian gas pipeline originally proposed by Gazprom, which would pass through the Baltic Sea, circumventing the anti-Russian countries of Poland and Ukraine. While many eastern and central European countries (as well as the United States) have claimed that this pipeline threatens European energy security, Germany has maintained its support for the project, which is today more than 90% complete.

Russia and Germany also continue to successfully work together upholding a nuclear pact with Iran as well as towards peace in Libya.

Redefining Roles
Looking forward, the many different minefields that exist between Germany and Russia beg the question: is it still useful for Berlin to cultivate a positive relationship with Moscow? While it may be tempting to suggest that Germany continue to turn a cold shoulder towards Russia, there exist too many areas of cooperation between the two states, both actual and potential, to ignore. While the construction of NordStream 2 is controversial, the existence of economic relations between Germany and Russia is not, and the pre-existing investment in those opportunities still stands. Perhaps the most visible example of this is that, in spite of the lack of progress on negotiations over Ukraine, the 2015 cyberattack, continued disinformation targeted on Germany, and even assassinations on its sovereign territory, Germany continues to work with Russia where it counts. Peace efforts in Libya, Syria, Iran, and Ukraine all bring Russia and Germany to the same table again and again. Construction of the NordStream 2 pipeline continues despite broad European distaste.

However, it is also important to note that Germany is a part of the EU and therefore cannot conduct a purely German foreign policy. Rather, it must work in concert with other European members. Many of these, particularly more eastern EU countries, hold staunchly anti-Russian views — force Germany to temper any potential pro-Russian inclinations it may hold. However, while Berlin must bend to the position of some of its neighbors, they too must bend to some of Berlin’s unwillingness to take an entirely adversarial position towards Moscow. Nevertheless, as Merkel’s tenure nears its end, speculating eyes — both domestic and foreign — turn towards her potential successors and their own views towards Moscow. In short, while it may be in Germany’s economic interests to preserve an uneasy alliance with Russia, its political interests continue to present a question for the future. Is there a point at which German political interests will outweigh the economic? Or will a realistic outlook on German-Russian relations win the day? For now, it appears that Germany and Russia are destined to remain uneasy allies, willing to work together on economic and peace issues, but clashing on the fundamental question of sovereignty of territory, as much in the cyberworld as over Ukraine.

Gabriella Gricius

Director of Research

- Twitter: @ModernFledgling
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Edited by: Cameron Vaské

All views expressed in this article are solely those of the author, and do not represent the views of The International Scholar or any other organization.

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